Party Debt – Glw Drk http://glwdrk.com/ Thu, 23 Sep 2021 17:44:40 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8 http://glwdrk.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/icon-1-150x150.png Party Debt – Glw Drk http://glwdrk.com/ 32 32 Failure to Raise Debt Ceiling May Delay Social Security, Child Tax Credits: What If You Need The Money Now http://glwdrk.com/failure-to-raise-debt-ceiling-may-delay-social-security-child-tax-credits-what-if-you-need-the-money-now/ http://glwdrk.com/failure-to-raise-debt-ceiling-may-delay-social-security-child-tax-credits-what-if-you-need-the-money-now/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 17:02:24 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/failure-to-raise-debt-ceiling-may-delay-social-security-child-tax-credits-what-if-you-need-the-money-now/ The federal government could soon default on its financial obligations, unless lawmakers increase or suspend the debt ceiling before the start of the next fiscal year on October 1. (iStock) The federal government will soon be unable to meet its financial obligations for the first time in history unless Congress increases or suspends the debt […]]]>

The federal government could soon default on its financial obligations, unless lawmakers increase or suspend the debt ceiling before the start of the next fiscal year on October 1. (iStock)

The federal government will soon be unable to meet its financial obligations for the first time in history unless Congress increases or suspends the debt ceiling, according to the treasury department.

The House of Representatives passed a cross-party bill on Tuesday to suspend the borrowing limit until 2022, and it is likely to face opposition from Republicans in the Senate.

Senatorial Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) previously indicated that no GOP legislator will support an increase in the debt ceiling. Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (DN.Y.), were quick to point out that Congress instituted a two-year debt ceiling suspension under the Trump administration.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged lawmakers on Capitol Hill to tackle the debt limit “through a regular ordinance, with broad bipartisan support” in a letter to the President of the Room, Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) earlier this month.

At a time when American families, communities and businesses are still suffering from the effects of the ongoing global pandemic, it would be particularly irresponsible to endanger the confidence and credit of the United States.

– Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, September 8 letter to Congress

AOC TO EXPAND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE IN THE EVENT OF PANDEMIC

It is not certain that the current legislation will get enough votes in the Senate to resolve the debt ceiling crisis. In a editorial published by the Wall Street JournalYellen warned of an “economic catastrophe” if the federal government hit the debt limit before reaching a budget resolution.

About 50 million seniors could temporarily stop receiving Social Security checks as early as October, and child tax credits could also be delayed, Yellen said. Federal employees, including military personnel, may not be paid.

If you are one of the millions of Americans who would be affected by an impending government shutdown, now is a good time to start preparing your finances. Consider a few options for obtaining additional cash, including borrowing a personal loan or refinancing your existing loans.

You can compare a wide variety of financial products on Credible’s online marketplace to make sure you get the lowest interest rate for your situation.

3 moves to consider if you need cash fast

Even if your federal paycheck is suspended or your child tax credit is delayed, you still have to meet your financial obligations such as housing payments and other bills. Missing your debt due date can hurt your credit rating and lead to costly late fees. Consider these borrowing options if you need the cash right now.

3 WAYS INFLATION IMPACTS YOUR PORTFOLIO AND HOW TO FIGHT PRICE GROWTH

Leverage your home equity by refinancing your mortgage

With real estate values ​​at record highs and mortgage rates stable below 3%, homeowners may be able to withdraw equity from their home at a historically low interest rate. rate with mortgage refinancing.

Mortgage cash refinancing involves taking out a larger home loan to pay off your current mortgage. You can access the cash difference to pay off debt, balance your budget, or use it as you see fit.

For example, if you owe $ 200,000 on your mortgage, but your home is worth $ 400,000, you might consider taking out a new home loan worth $ 250,000 to access $ 50,000 in cash.

Keep in mind that cash mortgage refinancing comes with closing costs, which are typically around 1.5% of the loan amount. Plus, refinancing a new, larger mortgage will cost you more in interest payments over the life of the loan. But if you qualify for a much lower mortgage rate, it can balance the overall cost of refinancing.

Use Credible’s mortgage payment calculator to estimate your new monthly housing payment and decide if this is the right choice for you. You can also pre-qualify to view mortgage refinance rates from multiple lenders without affecting your credit score.

SENATE BILL TARGETS STUDENT BANKRUPTCY LOANS

Borrow a lump sum personal loan

While you may be tempted to put emergency spending on a credit card, it can be easy to get trapped in a cycle of revolving high interest debt. As an alternative, consider borrowing a personal loan.

Personal loans provide quick lump sum financing that you pay off over a period of several months. Interest rates are fixed, so you know exactly how much debt you owe and your monthly payments stay the same.

Plus, personal loan rates are generally lower than credit card rates. The average interest rate on a two-year personal loan was 9.58% in the second quarter of 2021, according to the Federal Reserve, compared to 16.30% for credit card accounts rated at interest.

Personal loan interest rates vary widely from lender to lender depending on the length and amount of the loan, as well as the borrower’s credit history. For this reason, it is important to shop around with several lenders to get the lowest possible interest rate for your situation.

You can compare the rates of personal lenders in minutes on Credible.

DO YOU HAVE BAD CREDIT? YOU MAY OVERPAY FOR HOMEOWNER INSURANCE, DEPENDING ON A STUDY

Lower Your Student Loan Payments With Refinancing

Federal student loan payments are currently subject to administrative forbearance, but this same protection does not extend to private student loans. If you’re having trouble making your private student loan repayments, consider refinancing when rates are near all-time lows.

Refinancing a student loan can help you save money on interest, lower your monthly payments, and even get out of debt faster. Keep in mind that refinancing your federal student loans into a private loan would make you ineligible for federal benefits like COVID-19 deferral and income-based repayment plans, for example.

Use a student loan refinance calculator to see if you can save money on your private student loan payment. If you do decide to refinance your student loans, be sure to compare several private lenders at once on Credible.

$ 1B ADDITIONAL DEBT REMEDY FOR STUDENTS EXTENDED UNDER PRESIDENT BIDEN

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email the Credible Money Expert at moneyexpert@credible.com and your question could be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.


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Debate over debt ceiling grips Washington | How much debt do we have? http://glwdrk.com/debate-over-debt-ceiling-grips-washington-how-much-debt-do-we-have/ http://glwdrk.com/debate-over-debt-ceiling-grips-washington-how-much-debt-do-we-have/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 01:12:00 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/debate-over-debt-ceiling-grips-washington-how-much-debt-do-we-have/ In the midst of the latest debt ceiling debate, the Verify team looked at debt over the past forty years to see how it had grown. WASHINGTON – On Capitol Hill, Democrats and Republicans disagree over a plan to raise the debt ceiling amid a Treasury Department warning that it must be done by early […]]]>

In the midst of the latest debt ceiling debate, the Verify team looked at debt over the past forty years to see how it had grown.

WASHINGTON – On Capitol Hill, Democrats and Republicans disagree over a plan to raise the debt ceiling amid a Treasury Department warning that it must be done by early October.

On social networks, lawmakers point to the opposing party as the cause of the increase in debt. The audit team looked at Treasury data to analyze the evolution of debt over the past 40 years.

QUESTION:

Based on current projections for FY2021, is debt expected to increase under President Biden? How does this compare to past administrations?

SOURCES:

REPLY:

Yes. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit for fiscal 2021, which ends September 30, is expected to be around $ 3 trillion.

Debt has grown dramatically over the past four decades, from less than $ 1 trillion in fiscal 1981 to $ 26.9 trillion in fiscal 2020. GDP has also grown significantly over the course of the year. of this period.

WHAT WE KNOW:

On Capitol Hill, lawmakers are discussing to increase the debt limit, a process that would allow the Treasury to take on more debt. So far, Republicans have refused to offer their support for a bill that would raise the debt ceiling.

The debt limit is defined as a “legal constraint on the amount of money the Treasury can borrow to finance federal operations,” according to the Congressional Research Service.

Josh Bivens, research director at the Economic Policy Institute, said the debt limit is a necessary step in getting into debt, despite the fact that spending and income levels have already been decided by Congress.

“On the one hand, Congress decides on spending and taxes,” he said. “And their decision on spending and taxes leads directly to debt. But then they make this other decision divorced from their decision to tax and spend.”

As the debt ceiling debate continues, both sides are pointing fingers at the cause of such a large debt.

Minority Leader Senator Mitch McConnell said the GOP would not support any effort to raise the debt ceiling, adding that Democrats had “accumulated historic debt.”

On the other side of the debate are Democrats like Majority Leader Senator Chuck Schumer, who pointed out that the debt had increased to trillions of dollars under the Trump administration.

The audit team turned to The data of the Treasury to break down the increases in debt over the past forty years. To browse the data yourself, visit this link.

A fiscal year runs from September 30 from one year to the next, which means that it sometimes crosses several presidencies. Below are the debt levels for various milestone years.

  • Financial year 1981 (Reagan’s first year): $ 998 billion
  • Fiscal year 1988 (last year of Reagan): $ 2.6 trillion
  • Fiscal year 1989 (Bush Sr.’s first year): $ 2.9 trillion
  • Fiscal year 1992 (last year of Bush Sr.): $ 4.1 trillion
  • Fiscal year 1993 (Clinton’s first year): $ 4.4 trillion
  • Fiscal year 2000 (Clinton’s last year) $ 5.7 trillion
  • Fiscal 2001 (Bush Jr’s first year) $ 5.8 trillion
  • Fiscal year 2008 (last year of Bush Jr) 10,000 billion dollars
  • Fiscal year 2009 (Obama’s first year): $ 11.9 trillion
  • Fiscal year 2016 (Obama’s last year): $ 19.6 trillion
  • Fiscal year 2017 (Trump’s first year): $ 20.2 trillion
  • FY 2020 (Trump’s last year) $ 26.9 trillion

According to the Congressional Budget Office, this debt is expected to increase further in fiscal 2021. deficit for this year is estimated at around $ 3 trillion, according to the CBO.

These data indicate that debt has exploded in forty years, from less than $ 1,000 billion in fiscal year 1981 to nearly $ 30 trillion in fiscal year 2021.

“We’re here because of past spending by Democrats and Republicans,” American University’s Thomas Kahn said. “And tax cuts under the Republicans.”

Bivens agreed, pointing out that debt has increased across multiple jurisdictions.

“It certainly happened under the presidents of both parties,” he said. “There was a brief period in the late 90s when the debt started to go down. It was sort of a mix of tax increases and spending cuts and a very strong economy, which combined for a period of about four years of debt that actually went down at the end. from the 90s. But other than that, it’s been pretty, perpetually on the rise.

It is important to note that the GDP has also increased dramatically, from just over $ 3 trillion in 1981 to almost $ 21 trillion in 2020. Our experts have also said that debt does not. is not necessarily a bad thing, although as it increases it could mean greater payments to “debt services”.

“You have to pay interest on these loans,” Kahn said. “You have to pay interest on these treasury bills. That interest is called debt servicing. You have to service the growing debt and it’s one of the fastest growing parts of the budget in terms of debt. rate at which it increases. “

Kahn said the federal debt is now “equal to the size of the economy.” In 2020, the GDP of the United States was approximately $ 20.9 trillion.

“This has never happened before,” he said. “And in the long run, it steadily increases. We have a debt problem.

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California woman charged with $ 6 million student debt scam http://glwdrk.com/california-woman-charged-with-6-million-student-debt-scam/ http://glwdrk.com/california-woman-charged-with-6-million-student-debt-scam/#respond Tue, 21 Sep 2021 20:52:03 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/california-woman-charged-with-6-million-student-debt-scam/ OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) – A Californian woman has been arrested on suspicion of staging a student loan debt relief scam that embezzled thousands of borrowers over $ 6 million, the report said on Tuesday. highest state attorney. Angela Kathryn Mirabella, 47, ran a network of third-party call centers based in Orange County that employed sales […]]]>

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) – A Californian woman has been arrested on suspicion of staging a student loan debt relief scam that embezzled thousands of borrowers over $ 6 million, the report said on Tuesday. highest state attorney.

Angela Kathryn Mirabella, 47, ran a network of third-party call centers based in Orange County that employed sales agents who reached out to people across the country promising them to reduce or eliminate their loan debt student, California Attorney General Rob Bonta said.

“These promises were lies,” Bonta said at a press conference.

Grand jury indicted Mirabella on 87 counts, including fraud and grand theft under false pretenses, plus special allegations of over $ 2.5 million money laundering and white collar crimes aggravated.

She was due to be brought to justice on Wednesday, Bonta said. An email requesting comment from Mirabella was not immediately returned. It was not known if she had a lawyer who could speak on her behalf.

The indictment also included four call center managers and two sales agents who worked for Mirabella. They are accused of stealing $ 6.13 million in less than three years from more than 19,000 victims, including 3,000 in California, according to the court record.

Between 2017 and 2020, sales agents contacted around 380,000 student loan borrowers who were struggling to meet their monthly debts. The agents claimed to be associated with the US Department of Education and promised borrowers to enroll in programs that would lower their monthly payments and result in loan forgiveness.

“When borrowers became suspicious or uncertain, these sales agents would have applied the pressure creating false deadlines and implied that there was no other way to get student loan forgiveness,” Bonta said.

In some cases, people have disclosed personal identifying information that agents used to access and make changes to federal student aid accounts of borrowers without consent, prosecutors said.

Victims paid upfront fees and made additional monthly payments totaling more than $ 1,000 for services provided free of charge by federal loan officers, prosecutors said.

“Most of the victims thought these extra payments were being applied to their student loan debt. In reality, they weren’t, ”Bonta said. “This has led many victims to stop making their monthly payments on their actual student loans, resulting in late payment notifications, increased loan balances, and sometimes total student loan default.

The case was investigated by the Orange County Sheriff’s Department, the United States Postal Inspection Service and the Office of the Inspector General of the United States Department of Education. United.


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EXPLANATION: the fight against the debt of Chinese manufacturers shakes investors http://glwdrk.com/explanation-the-fight-against-the-debt-of-chinese-manufacturers-shakes-investors/ http://glwdrk.com/explanation-the-fight-against-the-debt-of-chinese-manufacturers-shakes-investors/#respond Tue, 21 Sep 2021 07:09:31 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/explanation-the-fight-against-the-debt-of-chinese-manufacturers-shakes-investors/ BEIJING (AP) – Global investors anxiously watch as one of China’s largest real estate developers struggle to avoid defaulting on tens of billions of dollars in debt, fueling fears of possible wider shockwaves for the system financial. Chinese regulators have yet to say what they might do with the Evergrande group. Economists expect Beijing to […]]]>

BEIJING (AP) – Global investors anxiously watch as one of China’s largest real estate developers struggle to avoid defaulting on tens of billions of dollars in debt, fueling fears of possible wider shockwaves for the system financial.

Chinese regulators have yet to say what they might do with the Evergrande group. Economists expect Beijing to step in if Evergrande and lenders fail to agree on how to handle its debts. But any formal resolution is expected to result in losses for banks and bondholders.

Government “does not want to be seen as engineering a bailout” but is likely to organize debt restructuring to “reduce systemic risk and contain economic disruption,” said Tommy Wu of Oxford Economics in a report.

Evergrande is the biggest casualty to date of the ruling Communist Party’s efforts to curb soaring debt levels that Beijing sees as a possible threat to the economy.

Investors are watching how the developer, headquartered in the southern city of Shenzhen, near Hong Kong, handles an interest payment due Thursday on one of its bonds.

A look at Evergrande and her anxiety about her debt problems:

– WHAT IS EVERGRANDE?

Evergrande Group, founded in 1996, is one of the largest Chinese manufacturers of apartments, office towers and shopping centers and one of its largest private sector conglomerates.

The company says it has more than 200,000 employees and supports 3.8 million jobs in construction and other industries. Evergrande claims to have 1,300 projects in 280 cities and assets worth 2,300 billion yuan ($ 350 billion).

Evergrande founder Xu Jiayin was China’s richest entrepreneur in 2017 with a net worth of $ 43 billion, according to the Hurun Report, which tracks China’s rich. He tumbled down the list as internet industries boomed, but still ranked as China’s richest real estate developer last year. He also topped Hurun’s list of philanthropists in 2020, donating around 2.8 billion yuan ($ 420 million).

Evergrande has diversified into electric vehicles, theme park development, health clinics, mineral water and other businesses.

– WHAT IS THE IMPACT SO FAR?

Evergrande shares traded in Hong Kong have fallen 85% since early 2021. Its bonds are trading at an equally steep discount.

Xu built Evergrande on borrowed money, perhaps even more than his rivals in an industry that relies on debt. As of June 30, Evergrande reported 2,000 billion yuan ($ 310 billion) in past due debt owed to bondholders, banks, construction contractors and other creditors.

Of this debt, 240 billion yuan ($ 37.3 billion) was due in one year, down 28.5% from the end of 2020, but nearly triple the 86.8 billion yuan (13.5 billion dollars) of Evergrande’s cash, according to a company financial report.

In early 2021, Evergrande predicted that its total annual transaction volume would exceed 2,000 billion yuan ($ 310 billion). It said first-half profit of $ 1.4 billion, but says sales are weakening because news of its cash shortage makes potential buyers nervous.

-WHY NOW?

Evergrande has been caught off guard by new limits placed by regulators on real estate-related borrowing as part of the Communist Party’s marathon campaign to reduce reliance on debt.

Economists warn that China’s growing debt has been a potential threat for more than a decade. The ruling party has made reducing these financial risks a priority since 2018. But total corporate, government and household borrowing reached nearly 300% of economic output last year, up from 270% in 2018. This is unusually high for a middle income country.

News reports indicate that Evergrande borrowed wherever it could, including demanding employees of its construction contractors to buy back its debt.

In 2017, state-owned China Citic Bank in Shenzhen agreed to lend 40 billion yuan ($ 6.2 billion) for an Evergrande project only after its executives agreed to invest at least 3 million yuan (465 000 dollars) each, according to the economic news magazine Caixin.

– HOW DOES THIS FIT INTO THE PARTY’S PLANS TO REMOVE THE CHINESE ECONOMY?

The Communist Party has cracked down on debt as it tries to foster self-sustaining economic growth based on domestic consumption rather than trade and debt-backed investment.

This enabled the first default on Chinese corporate debt since the 1949 revolution in 2014, as part of efforts to force borrowers and lenders to be more disciplined. Until then, the government had intervened to bail out insolvent borrowers to avoid scaring financial markets. Beijing has gradually allowed more defaults, but none by such a large debtor as Evergrande.

– AND THE OTHER REAL ESTATE DEVELOPERS?

Other large developers such as Vanke Co., state-owned Poly Group, and Wanda Group have not reported similar issues. But hundreds of small developers have shut down since regulators in 2017 began tightening control over fundraising tactics such as selling apartments before construction begins.

However, Chinese residential real estate is considered low risk to the financial system, as most apartments are paid for in cash and not with mortgages. This makes a wave of defaults like those in the United States after the 2008 crisis unlikely and more manageable for banks.

“Considering the hypertrophy of Chinese real estate developers, there could be a whole wave of defaults around the corner,” but Beijing has the resources “to prevent a full-blown Chinese credit crunch,” said Simon MacAdam of Capital Economics in a report. “For all its flaws, it is one of the advantages of having a tightly controlled financial system over a more liberal system.”

—RISK OUTSIDE OF CHINA?

Some commentators suggest Evergrande could become China’s ‘Lehman moment’, referring to the failure of Wall Street bank Lehman Brothers, a precursor to the 2008 crisis. But economists say the risk of a Wider contagion of financial markets is low.

“A managed default or even a messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market turmoil,” said MacAdam of Capital Economics.

Evergrande has $ 18 billion in foreign currency bonds outstanding, but much of it is held by Chinese banks and other institutions. Unlike Lehman, whose assets were financial instruments whose prices can fluctuate wildly, Evergrande has 1.4 trillion yuan ($ 215 billion) of land and partially completed projects with relatively stable prices.

In the unlikely event of outright default, China’s banking system has an annual profit of 1.9 trillion yuan and reserves of 5.4 trillion yuan against bad debts, “which could easily absorb the loss.” Macquarie Group Larry Hu and Xinyu Ji said in a statement. report.

– WHAT’S NEXT?

Investors are waiting to see what Chinese regulators might do, but analysts say they appear to be focusing on protecting homebuyers by ensuring apartments already paid for are completed.

The government has pumped money into other insolvent Chinese companies, but economists say Beijing seems determined to avoid doing this with Evergrande.

In August, Huarong Asset Management Co., Ltd., the largest of a group of companies formed to help resolve bad debts held by state-owned banks, was bailed out with a capital injection of companies from State after losing 102.9 billion yuan ($ 15.9 billion) last year.

In a letter to employees on Tuesday, Xu expressed confidence that the company would survive.

“Evergrande will surely emerge from the darkest moment as soon as possible,” Xu said in the letter marking the traditional Mid-Autumn Festival.


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Fourth Live Update from Stimulus Control: Child Tax Credit Extension to 2025, New Payment in California, Unemployment Benefits … http://glwdrk.com/fourth-live-update-from-stimulus-control-child-tax-credit-extension-to-2025-new-payment-in-california-unemployment-benefits/ http://glwdrk.com/fourth-live-update-from-stimulus-control-child-tax-credit-extension-to-2025-new-payment-in-california-unemployment-benefits/#respond Mon, 20 Sep 2021 21:18:05 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/fourth-live-update-from-stimulus-control-child-tax-credit-extension-to-2025-new-payment-in-california-unemployment-benefits/ Critical time for Congress with Biden’s agenda and debt limit at stake US Congress returns to session on Monday Faced with a massive agenda and a lack of time, Democrats under President Joe Biden hoping to pass sweeping national programs, fund the government, approve an infrastructure bill and raise the debt ceiling within weeks. They […]]]>

Critical time for Congress with Biden’s agenda and debt limit at stake

US Congress returns to session on Monday Faced with a massive agenda and a lack of time, Democrats under President Joe Biden hoping to pass sweeping national programs, fund the government, approve an infrastructure bill and raise the debt ceiling within weeks.

They are faced with several deadlines, iincluding a scheduled Sept. 27 vote on a $ 1,000 billion Senate-approved infrastructure bill and an Oct. 1 date the federal government will run out of cash fund many of its operations if Congress does not act.

Later in October, the country could exceed its borrowing limit, risking defaulting on the United States’ payment obligations.

Democrats, who control Congress from the narrowest margins, also want to maneuver a $ 3.5 trillion spending package – including proposals for child care, education, housing and green energy – beyond a Republican roadblock. Progressives brag that the plan is the biggest social policy expansion in decades, but senior Democrats acknowledged on Sunday that the bill may need to be cropped to pass.

“It can be $ 3.5 billion, it can be very close to that or maybe closer to something else,” said Representative James Clyburn, the Third House Democrat, told CNN on Sunday. Democrats also want to pass bills on the right to abortion vote, which face a long chance, given strong Republican opposition and a Senate filibuster rule requiring 60 senators. out of 100 agree to advance most laws.

“Did they bite more than they can chew?” Well, yeah, I think they did ” said William Hoagland, senior vice president of the Bipartisan Policy Center think tank.


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Marketmind: Watch the gas prices soar http://glwdrk.com/marketmind-watch-the-gas-prices-soar/ http://glwdrk.com/marketmind-watch-the-gas-prices-soar/#respond Mon, 20 Sep 2021 07:30:00 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/marketmind-watch-the-gas-prices-soar/ A warning label can be seen on the front of a gas meter at a home in Manchester, Britain on September 18, 2021. REUTERS / Phil Noble A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao. A massive week of monetary policy, with some 16 central banks holding meetings and possibly the first rate hike […]]]>

A warning label can be seen on the front of a gas meter at a home in Manchester, Britain on September 18, 2021. REUTERS / Phil Noble

A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao.

A massive week of monetary policy, with some 16 central banks holding meetings and possibly the first rate hike in a developed country – Norway. Not to say that others will follow soon; the Federal Reserve, for example, can keep its own rate hikes at bay. Others like Switzerland and Japan should remain resolutely conciliatory.

In the meantime, other sagas are focusing the attention of investors. Chinese real estate developer Evergrande’s inexorable path to default hits Hong Kong stocks (mainland markets are closed) and pushed Chinese junk bond yields to 14%, the highest in nearly a decade read more .

So this is a firm risk on Monday with European and US equity futures down 1%, following Friday’s gloomy session when the S&P 500 plunged near its one-month low and the VIX volatility gauge hit a one-month high (.SPX).

Much of this is, of course, due to concerns about economic growth and inflation, the debt ceiling arguing in Congress and the still high number of COVID cases.

Which brings us to the other issue of the day – soaring gas prices and the potential impact on inflation.

Already, these have forced some power producers to close their doors and shut down fertilizer factories in Britain. The ripple effects seem inevitable, on sectors ranging from slaughterhouses to supermarkets, as well as higher winter heating bills read more.

The pressure is growing on the authorities – Britain is planning measures to protect businesses and consumers and US manufacturers are urging to restrict exports of liquid gas (LNG). Politics also come into play – EU lawmakers have asked authorities to investigate Russian company Gazprom for market manipulation read more.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:

-Evergrande lenders assess loan losses, renewing credit read more

-Lufthansa’s $ 2.5 billion rights issue leads to a 2.3% drop in pre-market shares

-Rightmove UK house prices September

-German production prices August

-The pro-Putin Russian party wins the electoral majority but loses ground read more

-Canadians vote in terrible elections read more

– Beginning of the UN General Assembly (until September 24)

Reuters Charts

Reporting by Sujata Rao

Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.


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Canadian Trudeau hammers his rival on COVID-19 stance on the last day of the campaign http://glwdrk.com/canadian-trudeau-hammers-his-rival-on-covid-19-stance-on-the-last-day-of-the-campaign/ http://glwdrk.com/canadian-trudeau-hammers-his-rival-on-covid-19-stance-on-the-last-day-of-the-campaign/#respond Sun, 19 Sep 2021 18:08:00 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/canadian-trudeau-hammers-his-rival-on-covid-19-stance-on-the-last-day-of-the-campaign/ MONTREAL / OAKVILLE, Ontario, September 19 (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, traveling the country to deliver a final speech to voters ahead of Monday’s election, said on Sunday that only his Liberals can end the COVID pandemic -19 and accused his main rival of taking the wrong approach. Opinion polls indicate that the […]]]>

MONTREAL / OAKVILLE, Ontario, September 19 (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, traveling the country to deliver a final speech to voters ahead of Monday’s election, said on Sunday that only his Liberals can end the COVID pandemic -19 and accused his main rival of taking the wrong approach.

Opinion polls indicate that the political advantage is with Trudeau, who is stepping up attacks on Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole over the pandemic. Trudeau supports vaccination mandates against O’Toole, who prefers testing to control the public health crisis.

If Trudeau wins, it would most likely be another minority government, again leaving it dependent on other parties for government. Trudeau, 49, took power in 2015.

O’Toole, 48, has been on the defensive since his ally Jason Kenney, the Conservative premier of Alberta, apologized on Wednesday for relaxing COVID-19 controls too early and mismanaging the pandemic. Cases in the Western Province have skyrocketed.

“We don’t need a Conservative government that won’t be able to show leadership on immunization and the science we need to end this,” Trudeau told reporters in Montreal.

Trudeau added that Canadians “have a very important choice to make, whether they want Erin O’Toole to continue working with Jason Kenney so as not to end this pandemic, or if they want a Liberal government.”

O’Toole evaded questions about his previous support for Kenney’s approach.

Sunday offered the last chance to influence voters. Parties are not allowed to campaign on election day. Trudeau intends to make stops across Canada, covering some 2,800 miles (4,500 km). Instead, O’Toole focused on parliamentary ridings near Toronto, Canada’s largest city.

Liberal Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau speaks to reporters during a campaign stop on the last campaign day before the election, in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, September 19, 2021. REUTERS / Carlos Osorio

Trudeau called the vote two years earlier to seek approval for his center-left government’s handling of the pandemic and regain the parliamentary majority he lost in 2019. His initial healthy lead in the race faded in the end. amid the discontent over the early call.

Polls show that neither liberals nor right-wing conservatives have the 38% public support needed to secure a majority.

The Trudeau government has racked up record debt to fight the pandemic. O’Toole, who said Trudeau would rack up unsustainable debt levels if re-elected, first took the lead after hammering the prime minister over what he called an unnecessary takeover in the Fourth wave of COVID-19.

Aiming to broaden his appeal, O’Toole attempted to move his party to the center, taking more progressive stances on gay rights and climate change than his predecessor.

“We’re not your grandfather’s Conservative Party. We’re reaching out to everyone – we’re a big positive blue tent,” O’Toole told supporters at a restaurant in Oakville, Ont.

A senior Liberal campaign official said Trudeau gained momentum late. A series of opinion polls in the past few days shows the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at about 32%.

This favors the Liberals, whose support is concentrated in the large urban centers rich in ridings. The Conservatives’ base of support is in the less populated rural areas and in the west of the country.

Trudeau could be hurt if there is low voter turnout, which tends to favor the Conservatives.

If Trudeau wins another minority, he will likely again depend on leftist New Democrats of Jagmeet Singh, who want higher spending levels. Singh said on Saturday that Trudeau and O’Toole had shown “a dismal leadership failure” in their handling of the pandemic, while also criticizing the early call for elections.

Reporting by Steve Scherer and Tyler Choi; Writing by David Ljunggren; Editing by Will Dunham

Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.


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Fears of US Government Shutdown as Chicken Debt Ceiling Game Begins | American politics http://glwdrk.com/fears-of-us-government-shutdown-as-chicken-debt-ceiling-game-begins-american-politics/ http://glwdrk.com/fears-of-us-government-shutdown-as-chicken-debt-ceiling-game-begins-american-politics/#respond Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:00:00 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/fears-of-us-government-shutdown-as-chicken-debt-ceiling-game-begins-american-politics/ Top Democrats are expected to challenge Republicans to block an interim financing measure, which would trigger the double-barreled US budget crisis defaulting on its mammoth debt and a federal government shutdown, say two sources close to it of the proposal. The plan envisioned by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is […]]]>

Top Democrats are expected to challenge Republicans to block an interim financing measure, which would trigger the double-barreled US budget crisis defaulting on its mammoth debt and a federal government shutdown, say two sources close to it of the proposal.

The plan envisioned by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is to suspend the debt ceiling after the 2022 midterm election. in an interim bill that would keep the government funded until early December, the sources said.

Democrats then want to challenge Republicans to block the interim financing measure with an obstruction and prevent it from receiving the 60 votes needed to pass the Senate – which could cause a government shutdown on October 1 and leave the States – United unable to pay their bills.

The United States has almost always avoided defaults and the sources said they expected a resolution on this occasion as well, although negotiations, like in previous years, continued until the eleventh hour. .

But economists say a failure to raise or suspend the debt limit when tied to the interim financing measure would be particularly catastrophic, as the United States would be unable to repay its debts amid a government. federal potentially non-functional.

Resolving the impasse – which typically turns into political football under a Democratic president as Republicans criticize their spending – now requires a party to blink.

The strategy to tie the potentially catastrophic prospect of the United States defaulting on its $ 28 billion debt to a government shutdown could put Republicans in a difficult position after their repeated refusal to raise the debt limit in any way. bipartite.

It also underscores the extent of congressional dysfunction, as Republicans refuse to support measures ranging from voting rights legislation to police reform to a 9/11-style commission to investigate the attack. murder of January 6 against the Capitol.

The high-stakes debt ceiling clash is gaining momentum after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently said the United States could default in mid-October and cause “irreparable damage” to the debt. economy if Congress does not take action.

In a letter to PelosiYellen said the extraordinary measures the Treasury Department used to fund the government on a temporary basis after the country’s debt hit its legal limit on August 1 would be exhausted next month.

“Once all available measures and available liquidity are completely exhausted, the United States of America would not be able to meet its obligations for the first time in our history,” Yellen wrote.

This collapse could affect the credit rating of the United States, raising the specter of an increase in Treasury interest rates, which could cost the government billions and lead to increased borrowing costs for businesses. American rates, since their rates are compared to Treasury rates.

Democrats have insisted for months that Republicans join them in taking action on the debt ceiling, arguing that the national debt is mainly because of Republicans. increased by approximately $ 8 billion during the Trump administration.

Pelosi added at a recent press conference that the need to suspend the debt ceiling stemmed in part from Republican tax cuts for the rich. “We’re paying the credit card, the Trump credit card,” Pelosi said.

But Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell has remained adamant that Republicans will not support Democrats in raising the debt ceiling as part of a stand-alone bill, and that it should be included instead. in a vast infrastructure package that can be adopted by a party. online voting.

“Let’s be clear,” McConnell said in a tweet Wednesday. “With a Democratic President, a Democratic House, and a Democratic Senate, Democrats have all the tools they need to raise the debt ceiling. It is their sole responsibility. “

Pelosi and Schumer also noted that Democrats joined Republicans in handling the debt limit when Trump was president and believe Republicans should now reciprocate – rather than leaving vulnerable Democrats open to ad attacks if the cap is. noted in a party line vote. .

Emphasizing the point, Pelosi said Democrats would not include a provision to raise the debt ceiling in the $ 3.5 billion budget resolution for Biden’s infrastructure program they had been seeking. ‘intention to adopt with the reconciliation process, in order to avoid obstruction.

Instead, the Main Democrats are moving forward with a plan to add such language to the interim funding measure that would keep the government funded until Dec. 3 or Dec. 10, the sources said, and hope persuade 10 Senate Republicans to support the bill.

The inclusion of the debt limit in the interim measure is not final, the sources warned, and discussions will continue when the House returns from a summer recess. It could always be added to a disaster relief bill, for example, or be addressed in a stand-alone bill.

Part of the concern of Main Democrats is that the path to 60 votes in the Senate was significantly reduced last month after the Senate Republican Conference majority signed a letter promising to block any bills that attempt to raise the debt ceiling.

Only four Senate Republicans – Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and John Kennedy – refused to sign the letter, a number well below the threshold required to defeat an expected filibuster.


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Broadsheet asks for £ 1.2million in new case against NAB http://glwdrk.com/broadsheet-asks-for-1-2million-in-new-case-against-nab/ http://glwdrk.com/broadsheet-asks-for-1-2million-in-new-case-against-nab/#respond Sat, 18 Sep 2021 16:25:00 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/broadsheet-asks-for-1-2million-in-new-case-against-nab/ Broadsheet CEO Kaveh Moussavi. – Youtube Broadsheet is asking for an additional £ 1.2million from the NAB and the Pakistani government in legal fees and disbursements. Fees demanded due to NAB’s “inaction and conduct” resulting in “a substantial amount of work” undertaken to enforce court orders: Broadsheet lawyers. So far, the Broadsheet case has cost […]]]>
Broadsheet CEO Kaveh Moussavi. – Youtube
  • Broadsheet is asking for an additional £ 1.2million from the NAB and the Pakistani government in legal fees and disbursements.
  • Fees demanded due to NAB’s “inaction and conduct” resulting in “a substantial amount of work” undertaken to enforce court orders: Broadsheet lawyers.
  • So far, the Broadsheet case has cost Pakistan more than $ 65 million in total.

LONDON: After receiving £ 920,000 on August 17 through an order from the High Court in London and previously receiving around $ 30 million from Pakistan, Broadsheet LLC has a new claim asking the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and the Pakistani government to pay around £ 1.2million in legal fees and disbursements to seek court enforcement action against Pakistan and the NAB.

A source at United National Bank of London said he transferred £ 920,000 to Broadsheet on August 17, but now Broadsheet has written to NAB, seeking to “recover” £ 1,113,261.43 for legal fees and 61 £ 497.40 for disbursements.

This correspondent saw the latest letter sent by Broadsheet attorneys at Crowell & Moring to Broadsheet – through Pakistani attorneys for Allen and Overy – in which Pakistan was informed that these amounts are intended for “full credit. for legal fees and disbursements which have already been subjected to a summary assessment by the court and paid “and were” incurred in seeking to take coercive action “against the Pakistani authorities.

Broadsheet lawyers argue that the £ 1.2million amount is owed by Pakistan as a “consequence” of NAB failing first to comply with arbitral awards and then with orders from the High Court, because “considerable work” has been undertaken to enforce these orders – costs for which Broadsheet is now waiting for Pakistan to pay. Lawyers said the fee is being demanded due to the “inaction and conduct” of lawyers for the NAB and NAB.

The letter to the NAB, which was received in Islamabad at the NAB headquarters, indicates that these amounts were incurred as Broadsheet was required to explore a number of “alternative measures for law enforcement”.

The letter to NAB’s lawyer states: “Your clients were slow to respond, causing unnecessary delays and despite many assurances they would pay, they did not proceed with payment. This led our client to seek to enforce payment through third party debt orders, which your client also failed to engage with. Given the lack of response from your client, our client had no choice but to consider other means of execution and such action was completely justified when your client finally engaged with the third-party debt order (for the very first time at the hearing itself in December 2020) to oppose the request by claiming state immunity.

The letter says final quantum and cost allocations date back to 2019 and enforcement proceedings continued for just under two years, but NAB has not contacted Broadsheet’s attorneys and showed no interest in seeking an amicable resolution.

“It appears to our client that your client’s conduct is well below that expected by a sovereign state and that this conduct has significantly increased the costs our client has to bear,” the letter reads.

Broadsheet lawyers also held NAB London lawyers accountable for helping to increase Broadsheet costs.

Requesting £ 1.2million, Broadsheet wrote to lawyers for NAB: “You and your client’s conduct in failing to address the concerns raised by our client and to take or release instructions promptly has no doubt leads to a new correspondence between the parties. This increased the costs for our client.

Broadsheet CEO Kaveh Moussavi, when contacted, confirmed that the firm’s lawyers have invited the Pakistani government to discuss how this case can be resolved.

“If this is not resolved amicably, we will launch a case at the end of this month and there will be more costs on top of what Broadsheet is looking for,” he said.

Broadsheet LLC was hired by Pakistan over two decades ago to trace assets belonging to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and members of his family, as well as several other politicians and businessmen, including Asif Ali Zardari and Benazir Bhutto.

Pakistan broke the contract in violation of the agreement it had signed and the case has so far cost Pakistan nearly $ 65 million in legal fees and damages after Moussavi, the beneficial owner of Broadsheet, brought the matter before the sole arbitrator Sir Anthony Evans QC under the rules. from the Chartered Institute of Arbitrators.

The arbitration judge found that Pakistan had conspired to criminally defraud Broadsheet Isle of Man. Broadsheet’s lawyers convinced the High Court in London to seize Pakistan’s assets from United Bank Limited (UBL) in December 2020. Since then, Broadsheet has filed new claims for the remaining money, interest and costs.

So far, the Broadsheet case has cost Pakistan more than $ 65 million in total. Of that amount, Broadsheet received around £ 30million, while around $ 25million was paid to NAB’s London lawyers. The expenses of the NAB legal team on the Pakistan case amount to more than $ 5 million.


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Debt limit dead ends are not worth the risk http://glwdrk.com/debt-limit-dead-ends-are-not-worth-the-risk/ http://glwdrk.com/debt-limit-dead-ends-are-not-worth-the-risk/#respond Sat, 18 Sep 2021 00:15:00 +0000 http://glwdrk.com/debt-limit-dead-ends-are-not-worth-the-risk/ Game theory, used to model competitive outcomes, has been the subject of 12 Nobel Prize in Economics. But my understanding of nash equilibrium and Pareto Optimity isn’t solid, I’ll admit, so the framework I’m using for the debt ceiling deadlock is a Buddy Hackett duck joke. A hunter in the big city shoots a duck, […]]]>

Game theory, used to model competitive outcomes, has been the subject of 12 Nobel Prize in Economics. But my understanding of nash equilibrium and Pareto Optimity isn’t solid, I’ll admit, so the framework I’m using for the debt ceiling deadlock is a Buddy Hackett duck joke.

A hunter in the big city shoots a duck, which falls on a farm, while the late comedian explained to Johnny Carson to Tonight’s show over 30 years ago. He climbs a fence to retrieve it, but a farmer appears and says, “This is my property, this is my duck. The two men argue, until the farmer comes up with a special local custom to settle the differences: “We take turns kicking each other in the groin.

Not wanting to give in, the hunter accepts. The farmer starts off with a powerful connection, and the hunter falls down and howls for a while, demonstrated enthusiastically by Hackett. The hunter pulled himself together and said, “Guess it’s my turn.” And the farmer says, “You can have the duck.”

Hackett’s Duck Principle, if my math is correct, means that competitors need to make sure that what they are fighting for is worth it. There is an added wrinkle with the debt ceiling deadlock, in that the hunter and the farmer, in this case, risk harming us rather than each other. It’s time for an easier and safer way, which I will come to.

For context, America has imposed a legal limit on its debt for a little over 100 years and has increased that limit about 100 times. “Ceiling” is probably not the best metaphor – debt cap, perhaps. As growing partisan resentment turned everyday legislation into a fight to the death, politicians became more willing to use the debt ceiling as leverage.

A deadlock in 2011 resulted in a downgrade in the U.S. government’s credit rating, a brief but unfortunate drop in stocks, and a temporary rise in bond yields, which accountants say cost the U.S. government billions of dollars in additional interest. The result was a shaky compromise, which collapsed in 2013, but Congress had yet to regain its appetite for another round of budget chicken, so it suspended the cap. There have been numerous extensions since, the last of which expired at the end of July. The Treasury is now looking for funds under its sofa cushions. Without Congressional action, America will default by mid-October.

Debt was 35% of gross domestic product in 2007 when the first iPhone came out, but then followed two deep recessions with bailouts, separated by a series of sweeping tax cuts but not spending. This year, the debt will reach around 101% of GDP. Over the next decade, it will reach the record 106% reached just after World War II, when two in five American workers were either in the military or in ammunition manufacturing. By 2050, it could reach 195%.

Some economists, like Boston University professor Laurence Kotlikoff, calculate debt at much higher levels today, based on obligations such as projected and unfunded Social Security payments. “We are worse off than any advanced country, and this is the result of seven decades of a Ponzi scheme,” he said.

That sounds bad. On the other side are proponents of modern monetary theory, who argue that for countries like the United States that issue their own currency, the only real constraints on spending are the availability of labor and materials and the desire to keep inflation low. “Finding the votes to pass a spending bill can be difficult, but finding the money is never a problem,” economist Stephanie Kelton told a recent TED talk.

Unlimited spending is too far a bridge to monetary expansion for me. I was brought up in a mixed household—keynesian and Chicago School– and lately, I feel like I identify financially as neo-Amish. Regardless of your school, however, the debt ceiling equates to performance art, not tax restraint. The amount America owes now has already been decided by past spending and taxation decisions, and both sides have dramatically increased the overruns. The only thing the cap determines is whether we’re going to get back the money we already owe. And this, in turn, influences the fact that interest on the debt will remain unusually low.

Democrats in the Senate have exactly 50 votes needed to raise the debt ceiling through a budget process called reconciliation. The main things to know about reconciliation are that, first, it is nothing like how a functioning legislature should set a nation’s spending priorities, and second, it is not available all the time, and the fact that it can be used so late in the year is a fluke of the incompetence of Congress.

Why don’t Democrats just take action? Because they don’t want Republicans to claim later in campaigns that they tried to stop Democrats from borrowing more, but that they didn’t have enough votes. And Republicans, who just want to say that, are offering zero votes. Both parties are betting on busy and distracted voters who do not understand the trick. The leverage they use is the threat of financial disaster, and the only way to increase leverage is to make a tight call.

Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Canada: Almost all developed countries manage without a debt ceiling. Denmark has one, but last fixed it in 2010, without incident, at a level well above the current debt. Congress could simply remove the cap, but neither party will risk that.

Maya MacGuineas, chair of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, says the answer is to demand that the debt ceiling be raised as part of any tax cuts or spending increases that create a deficit. This would combine liability for borrowing with authorization and end deadlocks by default.

“Even though it’s only a small risk that we might default, it’s enough that we don’t let a purely stupid risk sit on the table and threaten us,” she said. “And at a time when we’re so polarized and dysfunctional, stupid things seem a lot more possible than they have been in the past.”

Write to Jack Hough at jack.hough@barrons.com. Follow him on twitter and subscribe to his Barron’s Streetwise podcast.



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